How is the L-pocolypse going to effect things?
^Our Grandparents – the Greatest Generation – watching us panic about the L train
Apocalypse movies subconsciously terrify me because when things go dark, the last place anyone in the world would want to be is Lower Manhattan…precisely where I’m writing this from. After a quick inventory of useful things in my Tree-house in Alphabet City, I can safely say that if we had a Waterworld scenario on our hands, I have pepper spray, 6 eggs, a carton of Almond Milk, some glow sticks, an undisclosed number of costumes and a two pound bag of Chia seeds. My giant inflatable Pegasus is really the only beacon of hope; I would like to be remembered by future generations as the one who got away by floating down the East River and into the sunset (more realistically, the Gowanus Canal) on a mythical creature.
In case you don’t live in the Tri-State area or follow any Brooklyn-er on social media, the L-train, which serves as the umbilical cord from Manhattan to Brooklyn, is being shut down in 2019 for a harrowing 18 months. With the number of asteroids whizzing by Earth essentially undetected and all the tangible apocalyptic scenarios on our horizon, you think people would rank a Deep Impact scenario slightly higher on the scale of life inconveniences, but the big ticket question I’m fielding right now is, “What’s going to happen to Brooklyn when the L shuts down?”
“I’m no geologist but it seems like we’ll have a very standard Pangaea situation on our hands; Brooklyn will most likely drift away and head straight out to Bermuda or bang a left and link up with Montauk. Too soon to tell.”
A surprise to no one, the already shaky L train was seriously damaged during Hurricane Sandy and the city has finally made the executive decision to close the L train under the East River and through Manhattan for 18 months starting in 2019. This massive repair will cost a whopping $800 million dollars and it’s impact will unfortunately be felt beyond the pocketbook of the tax payers. While people are worried about their social lives being impacted, the pending influence on the real estate market is undeniable yet varying on who will be hit the hardest
Regarding sales, new development projects are likely to be negatively impacted more than resales, according to industry veterans. The current resale inventory is relatively tight versus the new development market; new developments condominiums come with much higher closing costs, while resales are more attractive from a price perspective and the demand for such will drive that trend more aggressively. While sellers may need to be a bit more negotiable on the resale side if they’re looking to expedite a sale, the entire situation is fairly akin to the real estate around the second avenue subway, with very favorable appreciation when the dust settles.
Approximately 78 percent of housing units in Williamsburg, Greenpoint and Bushwick are occupied by renters and they’re likely to be the among the most affected by transit trauma. Currently, the average rental price for a one-bedroom apartment in Williamsburg reached $3,153 in February, up from $3,065 during the same period last year. It’s tricky to say how much rental prices would fall starting in 2018, but some in the industry believe landlords are in for a double digit drop.
For retail, the prediction is that small businesses centered around the Bedford Avenue stop will fight for slimmer rents. The average rent, at $350 per square foot, is the highest in Brooklyn. For these smaller businesses, the L train shut down has been compared to the Titanic striking the iceberg – at least for third-class passengers.
Current alternative transit ideas brought to you by the best and brightest:
1. One construction firm proposed a tunnel that would float on the East River; a sort of giant, translucent snake stretching between Brooklyn and Manhattan. While definitely cool, I can think of a few hundred reasons why that is a terrible idea.
2. A Tram system, or “aerial gondolas” have also been suggested. I think that’s about as likely as a Knicks championship.
3. Aside from purely utilizing ride share applications more so, Uber’s CEO has come out with Rapid Bus Transit, a kind of train with four wheels that would have its own lane and allow for pre-board ticketing
So 18 months without the L is not the end of the world; even by a long shot. That is because when a giant asteroid going 44,000 miles per hour hit our planet 66 million years ago, things were a bit more grim. I think the inconvenience of Uber pool is a cushier reality but that depends where you get your kicks. At the end of the day, its a $800 million investment in infrastructure and will greatly benefits the communities it serves. In the meanwhile, please fund my kick-starter for an East River Gondola. In an Instagram fodder-filled world, it’s a solid gold idea.